Electorate: 71,300
Why is there a by-election on 8 October 2026?
Holborn and St Pancras was the constituency of former Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Following Keir Starmer's resignation as an MP, a by-election will be held on Thursday 8 October.
The main candidates are:
- Green: Zack Polanski
- Liberal Democrats: Patrick Stillman
- Labour: Sagal Abdi-Wali
- Conservative: Ewan Cameron
- Reform: Peter Newman
This is likely to be a hotly contested race between Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali - currently the leader of Camden Council - and Zack Polanski, the leader of the Green Party.
Voting in this election? We recommend voting Green as this is the strongest vote for climate.
The next section is a projection using national opinion polling and the results at the previous General Election, and does not take account of the local context in the upcoming by-election.
What Might Happen at the Next General Election?
Based on the latest opinion polls, VoteClimate estimates that if a general election happened today, the result in Holborn and St Pancras would be as follows.
Strongest Vote For Climate
If there were an election today, VoteClimate would recommend the following strongest vote for climate in Holborn and St Pancras:
This is based on the parties' climate policies and pledges and the latest opinion polls. For more details, please scroll down to Voting Recommendations.
This constituency projection is based on the following national vote shares (GB): Labour: 25.4% | Reform: 23.3% | Conservative: 19.9% | Green: 11.7% | Liberal Democrat: 10.4%
[Last updated: September 2026]
For our full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
What Happened at the July 2024 General Election?
Voting Recommendations
Based on our analysis Party Manifestos - Climate Comparison and our review of current policies, we have ranked the parties' manifestos for their impact on climate:
- Green - very good
- Lib Dems - good
- Labour - underwhelming
- Others - hopeless
We're classifying Holborn and St Pancras as a safe seat, as the predicted majority is greater than 5% of the expected turnout.
Unfortunately, we don't believe that any party with good climate policies can win in this seat. Instead, we urge all climate-voters in Holborn and St Pancras to use their vote to send the strongest message to the main two parties that they need to take urgent action on climate, by voting for:
Green
For more information please see How VoteClimate Works In Different Types Of Seat.