Electorate: 72,176
Irene Campbell is the Labour MP for North Ayrshire and Arran. Check out Irene Campbell's Record on Climate.
What Might Happen at the Next General Election?
Based on the latest opinion polls, VoteClimate estimates that if a general election happened today, the result in North Ayrshire and Arran would be as follows.
Strongest Vote For Climate
If there were an election today, VoteClimate would recommend the following strongest vote for climate in North Ayrshire and Arran:
This is based on the parties' climate policies and pledges and the latest opinion polls. For more details, please scroll down to Voting Recommendations.
This constituency projection is based on the following national vote shares (SC): SNP: 29% | Labour: 18% | Reform: 17% | Conservative: 10% | Liberal Democrat: 10% | Green: 10%
[Last updated: September 2026]
For our full forecast of the next general election, please see our Electoral Analysis.
What Happened at the July 2024 General Election?
Voting Recommendations
Based on our analysis Party Manifestos - Climate Comparison and our review of current policies, we have ranked the parties' manifestos for their impact on climate:
- Green - very good
- Lib Dems - good
- Labour - underwhelming
- Others - hopeless
We're classifying North Ayrshire and Arran as a safe seat, as the predicted majority is greater than 5% of the expected turnout.
Unfortunately, we don't believe that any party with good climate policies can win in this seat. Instead, we urge all climate-voters in North Ayrshire and Arran to use their vote to send the strongest message to the main two parties that they need to take urgent action on climate, by voting for:
Green
For more information please see How VoteClimate Works In Different Types Of Seat.