VoteClimate: Green Party Most Marginal Local Elections

Green Party Most Marginal Local Elections - 1 May 2025

Here are the places where the Green Party is predicted to achieve a slender majority on 1 May 2025 and are at greatest risk of losing, followed by the places where other parties will likely have slender majorities and the Green Party has the greatest opportunity to overtake them. If we can galvanise even small numbers of votes in these places we could swing the outcome in favour of Climate. Do you know anyone who lives in these areas?

Forecast vote shares (GB): Conservative: 25% | Reform: 25% | Labour: 18% | Liberal Democrat: 17% | Green: 7%

[Last updated: April 2025

Location	Expected Winner		Green Votes	Majority / Votes Required
Newark East - Nottinghamshire - 1 May 2025	Green	776	776	165	6.0%
Shrivenham - Oxfordshire - 1 May 2025	Green	1,167	1,167	221	5.9%
Hythe West - Kent - 1 May 2025	Green	1,538	1,538	298	5.9%
Broadclyst - Devon - 1 May 2025	Green	1,613	1,613	296	5.7%
Penryn - Cornwall - 1 May 2025	Green	426	426	62	4.2%
St Oswald - Shropshire - 1 May 2025	Green	365	365	45	3.5%
Burnley Central West - Lancashire - 1 May 2025	Green	850	850	76	2.7%
Brandon - County Durham - 1 May 2025	Green	911	911	70	2.5%
Ware North - Hertfordshire - 1 May 2025	Green	980	980	69	1.9%
Shipston - Warwickshire - 1 May 2025	Green	968	968	7	0.2%
St David's & Haven Banks - Devon - 1 May 2025	Labour	1,280	1,225	55	1.4%
Ramsgate - Kent - 1 May 2025	Reform	2,315	2,180	135	1.5%
Tiverton West - Devon - 1 May 2025	Conservative	941	868	73	1.7%
Tetbury - Gloucestershire - 1 May 2025	Conservative	988	916	72	2.0%
Lancaster East - Lancashire - 1 May 2025	Labour	1,419	1,334	85	2.1%
Warwick South - Warwickshire - 1 May 2025	Reform	831	758	73	2.2%
Ilfracombe - Devon - 1 May 2025	Conservative	824	762	62	2.2%
Evesham South - Worcestershire - 1 May 2025	Reform	620	557	63	2.4%
Sevenoaks Rural North East - Kent - 1 May 2025	Conservative	1,433	1,304	129	2.6%
Burnley Rural - Lancashire - 1 May 2025	Reform	991	844	147	3.7%
Abbey - Cambridgeshire - 1 May 2025	Labour	843	738	105	3.9%
Syston Fosse - Leicestershire - 1 May 2025	Conservative	1,072	930	142	4.6%
Kingsthorpe North - West Northamptonshire - 1 May 2025	Reform	1,092	882	210	5.5%
Stonehouse - Gloucestershire - 1 May 2025	Reform	730	571	159	5.7%
Hatherleigh & Chagford - Devon - 1 May 2025	Conservative	1,313	1,025	288	6.6%
Sprotbrough - Doncaster - 1 May 2025	Reform	870	647	223	6.9%
Hitchin Rural - Hertfordshire - 1 May 2025	Conservative	1,171	869	302	7.0%
Earls Barton - North Northamptonshire - 1 May 2025	Reform	1,418	1,007	411	7.2%
Stroud Central - Gloucestershire - 1 May 2025	Labour	1,746	1,376	370	7.3%
Nuneaton East - Warwickshire - 1 May 2025	Conservative	1,039	769	270	7.7%
Ivinghoe - Buckinghamshire - 1 May 2025	Reform	1,012	696	316	7.8%
West of England Combined Authority - West Of England - 1 May 2025	Labour	65,700	45,701	19,999	7.9%
Corvedale - Shropshire - 1 May 2025	Conservative	426	308	118	8.2%
Nene Valley - West Northamptonshire - 1 May 2025	Reform	1,021	677	344	8.2%
Rodborough - Gloucestershire - 1 May 2025	Labour	1,242	871	371	9.1%
Lapworth & West Kenilworth - Warwickshire - 1 May 2025	Conservative	777	523	254	9.6%

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