VoteClimate: Lib Dem Most Marginal Local Elections - 1 May 2025

Lib Dem Most Marginal Local Elections - 1 May 2025

Here are the places where the Liberal Democrat Party is predicted to achieve a slender majority on 1 May 2025 and are at greatest risk of losing, followed by the places where other parties will likely have slender majorities and the Liberal Democrat Party has the greatest opportunity to overtake them. If we can galvanise even small numbers of votes in these places we could swing the outcome in favour of Climate. Do you know anyone who lives in these areas?

Forecast vote shares (GB): Conservative: 25% | Reform: 25% | Labour: 18% | Liberal Democrat: 17% | Green: 7%

[Last updated: April 2025

Location Expected Winner Liberal Democrat Votes Majority / Votes Required
Salisbury Milford - Wiltshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 510 510 87 5.0%
Bagley - Shropshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 359 359 56 4.7%
Market - Cambridgeshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 731 731 101 4.4%
Whitchurch South - Shropshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 314 314 39 4.2%
Calne Chilvester & Abberd - Wiltshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 388 388 48 3.9%
Gwinear-Gwithian & Hayle East - Cornwall - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 551 551 69 3.9%
Morpeth Stobhill - Northumberland - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 508 508 59 3.4%
Consett North - County Durham - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 697 697 68 3.3%
Chippenham Cepen Park & Derriads - Wiltshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 325 325 36 3.3%
Amble West with Warkworth - Northumberland - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 437 437 48 3.2%
Aylesbury East - Buckinghamshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 1,109 1,109 114 3.2%
Melksham East - Wiltshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 215 215 23 3.1%
Pendle Central - Lancashire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 1,004 1,004 102 3.0%
Hatfield East - Hertfordshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 725 725 81 2.9%
Malvern Langland - Worcestershire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 560 560 45 2.5%
London Colney - Hertfordshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 833 833 70 2.2%
St Ives South & Needingworth - Cambridgeshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 798 798 61 2.0%
Castle - Cambridgeshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 1,034 1,034 66 2.0%
Royston East & Ermine - Hertfordshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 1,343 1,343 87 1.9%
Burnley South West - Lancashire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 799 799 49 1.8%
Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority - Cambridgeshire And Peterborough - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 60,729 60,729 3,885 1.7%
St Neots Priory Park & Little Paxton - Cambridgeshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 706 706 43 1.6%
Oundle - North Northamptonshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 1,684 1,684 101 1.6%
Aylesbury South East - Buckinghamshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 943 943 45 1.3%
Market Harborough West & Foxton - Leicestershire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 999 999 47 1.2%
Huntingdon North & Hartford - Cambridgeshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 652 652 27 1.1%
Till Valley - Wiltshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 653 653 17 0.9%
Lancaster Rural East - Lancashire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 1,134 1,134 32 0.7%
Longhoughton - Northumberland - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 535 535 12 0.7%
Monkmoor - Shropshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 356 356 7 0.6%
Roman Bank & Peckover - Cambridgeshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 968 968 16 0.5%
Long Rock, Marazion & St Erth - Cornwall - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 631 631 10 0.5%
Urchfont & Bishops Cannings - Wiltshire - 1 May 2025 Liberal Democrat 532 532 0 0.0%
Salisbury Harnham East - Wiltshire - 1 May 2025 Reform 429 428 1 0.1%
North Watford - Hertfordshire - 1 May 2025 Labour 1,352 1,346 6 0.1%
Tiverton East - Devon - 1 May 2025 Conservative 790 783 7 0.2%
Torpoint - Cornwall - 1 May 2025 Conservative 634 625 9 0.4%
Bushey South - Hertfordshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 1,326 1,308 18 0.4%
St Austell Poltair & Mount Charles - Cornwall - 1 May 2025 Reform 419 412 7 0.5%
Northam - Devon - 1 May 2025 Reform 980 961 19 0.6%
Trowbridge Park - Wiltshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 311 305 6 0.6%
Burwell - Cambridgeshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 794 773 21 0.7%
Woodditton - Cambridgeshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 902 874 28 0.8%
Tunbridge Wells Rural - Kent - 1 May 2025 Conservative 1,422 1,375 47 0.9%
St Cleer & Menheniot - Cornwall - 1 May 2025 Reform 563 544 19 1.0%
Deddington - Oxfordshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 1,144 1,098 46 1.1%
Wellesbourne - Warwickshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 1,095 1,048 47 1.3%
Tunbridge Wells East - Kent - 1 May 2025 Conservative 1,458 1,379 79 1.4%
Bromsgrove East - Worcestershire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 976 920 56 1.7%
Newquay Trenance - Cornwall - 1 May 2025 Conservative 423 395 28 1.9%
Marlow - Buckinghamshire - 1 May 2025 Reform 1,263 1,155 108 2.1%
Soham South & Haddenham - Cambridgeshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 886 808 78 2.5%
Nene Valley - West Northamptonshire - 1 May 2025 Reform 1,021 902 119 2.8%
Malvern Link - Worcestershire - 1 May 2025 Reform 664 598 66 3.0%
Harpenden South West - Hertfordshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 1,616 1,447 169 3.1%
Bovey Rural - Devon - 1 May 2025 Conservative 1,064 944 120 3.2%
Yaxley & Farcet - Cambridgeshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 672 595 77 3.4%
Marlborough East - Wiltshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 542 491 51 3.4%
Chippenham Cepen Park & Hunters Moon - Wiltshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 317 279 38 3.5%
Devizes East - Wiltshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 426 371 55 3.6%
Newton Abbot North - Devon - 1 May 2025 Other 835 715 120 3.7%
Ridgeway West - Buckinghamshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 1,045 921 124 3.8%
Calstock - Cornwall - 1 May 2025 Labour 817 713 104 3.8%
Harpenden Rural - Hertfordshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 1,570 1,378 192 3.9%
Ridgeway East - Buckinghamshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 1,167 1,013 154 3.9%
Bishops Stortford West - Hertfordshire - 1 May 2025 Reform 976 814 162 4.1%
Burnley Rural - Lancashire - 1 May 2025 Reform 991 827 164 4.2%
Ivybridge - Devon - 1 May 2025 Conservative 1,024 879 145 4.2%
Newquay Central & Pentire - Cornwall - 1 May 2025 Reform 492 419 73 4.3%
Papworth & Swavesey - Cambridgeshire - 1 May 2025 Reform 760 629 131 4.3%
Oakley - North Northamptonshire - 1 May 2025 Labour 1,091 932 159 4.4%
South Molton - Devon - 1 May 2025 Conservative 1,162 997 165 4.5%
Willand & Uffculme - Devon - 1 May 2025 Conservative 1,143 960 183 4.6%
North Wolds - Lincolnshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 880 747 133 4.7%
Rickmansworth East & Oxhey Park - Hertfordshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 1,374 1,156 218 4.8%
Newquay Porth & Tretherras - Cornwall - 1 May 2025 Conservative 553 469 84 4.9%
Pool & Tehidy - Cornwall - 1 May 2025 Reform 340 279 61 4.9%
Brockworth - Gloucestershire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 1,072 879 193 5.0%
Southwell - Nottinghamshire - 1 May 2025 Conservative 1,589 1,328 261 5.0%

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